We are often asked why we sometimes use an estimate and other times a catalogue value in our auction descriptions. Obviously a carton of thousands of inexpensive stamps which would take weeks to catalogue will be estimated. A high percentage of large lots and also postal history have an estimate rather than a catalogue value. This estimate is what we feel is the likely result IF there is reasonable competition. Sometimes there is very little competition for a lot and it sells well below our estimate; other times there is keen competition and it might sell for a large multiple of the estimate (see our comments after Auction 7 for more details).
Most single stamps or sets as well as some larger lots quote a catalogue value. It is important when planning your bids to understand that the catalogue value is a suggested retail (not auction) price of a single stamp in very fine condition. Doing research on the distinctions and criteria for very fine will let you understand why a fair market price can range from less than 10 percent of catalogue to a multiple of catalogue.
With about a week to go one lot will already open at exactly 10 times the catalogue value; another lot is languishing with an opening bid of significantly less than one percent of the catalogue value. Three reasons why a lot might sell for a tiny fraction of catalogue value are:
- the lot contains faulty stamps
- a large percentage of the catalogue value is comprised of inexpensive stamps where a retail price is essentially a handling charge
- there is a lot of duplication especially if the duplication is of uninteresting stamps.
Something else to consider is that catalogue values can change dramatically. Many of the best items of the People’s Republic of China doubled in price between the 2011 Scott Catalogue and the 2012 which came out about 5 weeks ago. We have just received Volume Three which covers the alphabetical listing from G to I countries. In the new catalogue, for example, many of the classic Great Britain stamps have increased by about five percent. That might not affect your bidding very much but several have increased by more than 10 percent.
Lot 801 — We wrote about this in a previous posting. The catalogue value of a mint Penny Black has jumped 20% from $7500 to $9000. This reflects a jump in demand, especially from China.
Lot 824 has seen a rise from $1000 to $1200.
Lot 826 has seen a rise from $1300 to $1500.
There are certain to be other increases (and possibly a few decreases).